Mumbai: Dun & Bradstreet, a global leader in business decisioning data and analytics, has released its July 2025 Economy Observer report, signaling an optimistic outlook for the Indian economy.
The report identifies key improvements in industrial activity, a continued cooling of inflation, and a favorable shift in financial and credit conditions.
According to the report, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is estimated to have surged by 5.0% in June 2025, compared to just 1.2% in May, largely driven by manufacturing growth and increased coal production.
Also Read: India Sets USD 300 Billion Bioeconomy Goal by 2030
The revival in capital goods and consumer durables, supported by tax exemptions and robust domestic demand, has played a crucial role in this recovery.
Dun & Bradstreet Forecasts CPI Inflation to Ease
Inflation also appears to be under control. Dun & Bradstreet forecasts Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to ease further to 1.6% in June 2025 from 2.8% in May.
This decline is attributed to stabilizing food prices, improved supply chains, and proactive government measures, such as the release of buffer stocks and early monsoon benefits. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is also expected to fall to 0.1%, driven by lower input and fuel costs.
Financial indicators show a healthy trajectory, with bond yields declining and credit demand showing early signs of revival. The 10-year G-Sec yield is projected to decline to 6.2%, while the 91-day T-Bill yield is expected to fall to 5.6%.
Also Read: WAVES Bazaar Generates ₹1328 Crore in Business as India Leads Creative Economy
Bank credit growth has reached 9.6% in June, aided by improving consumption trends and the RBI’s 50 basis point repo rate cut aimed at stimulating lending, particularly to MSMEs and retail borrowers.
On the external front, the Indian rupee is forecast to average ₹86.0/USD in July 2025. While marginal depreciation has occurred due to a slightly widening trade deficit, the currency remains stable amidst global volatility, supported by strong services exports and sustained capital inflows.
Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, commented, “India’s economy is gaining momentum, bolstered by resilient domestic demand, targeted government incentives, and easing inflationary pressures. The supportive monetary policy environment, coupled with a stable financial ecosystem, is creating the foundation for sustained growth despite global headwinds.”
The Economy Observer continues to serve as a critical monthly guide for businesses, policymakers, and investors, offering timely insights into the trajectory of India’s macroeconomic performance.
